Predictions, the odds prediction markets give
On this page
Predictions shows what prediction markets expect to happen. A prediction market is a place where people trade on a question, such as who wins an election, what the Fed does next or which team wins a game, and the price they trade at is a chance. Predictions puts the chances from several of these markets in one place, beside the money behind them, how they have moved and the news about the subject.
Predictions is available on 4Search and 4Conservative.
#A tour of the Predictions page
Open Predictions in the tab row at the top of any page, or go straight to it.
The top of the Predictions page. Everything on it is a prediction market or the news about one.
- 1Search the markets
- 2The Predictions pages
- 3The topics
- 4Odds format, and when prices were read
- 5Headline questions of the moment
The page is built from a few simple parts:
- The search box finds a market by what it is about: a person, a team, "the Fed", "Bitcoin". See Search prediction markets.
- The row of Predictions pages takes you to the lists: following, the leaderboard, the biggest moves, the calendar, new and resolved markets and more. The table below explains each one.
- The topic row filters everything by subject: Politics, Elections, Economy, Finance, Crypto, Sports, Culture, Tech, World, Weather, Health and Mentions. See Browse markets by topic.
- The % US Dec switch changes how every chance is written. See Show odds as percentages, American odds or decimal odds. Beside it, the page says when the prices were last read from the venues.
- The headline questions are the busiest open market for each of a set of big themes, such as the Fed's next decision, control of the Senate and the House, Bitcoin, a recession and the year's big championship. Each shows its leading answer and chance. Select one to open its market.
Below them, the page lists what is trending, the day's biggest games, the biggest moves of the day, what is decided in the next three days, new markets that are already busy, where the venues disagree and what has recently settled. The right-hand column shows where the money is today, the markets with the most money, the markets in the news and a short Reading the odds box.
#All the pages
| Page | What it shows | Read more |
|---|---|---|
| Overview | The page above | This article |
| Following | The markets you follow and how far each has moved since you followed it | Follow markets |
| Leaderboard | Where the money is: the markets drawing the most dollars | The leaderboard |
| Movers | The markets whose odds moved most today or this week | The biggest moves |
| In the News | The markets whose subjects the news is naming most right now | The news behind the odds |
| Calendar | What gets decided, day by day | The calendar |
| New and Resolved | Markets newly listed, and what recently settled | New and resolved markets |
| Track Record | How often markets' favorites won, and whether their chances held up | Track Record |
| Venues Compared | The same question priced on more than one venue | Compare venues |
| Stocks & Rates | The stocks, rates, currencies and coins markets are about | Stocks, rates and coins |
| News Topics | Every subject markets bet on, with its latest news | The news behind the odds |
| A topic, such as Sports | Every market on that subject | Browse markets by topic |
| A market's own page | One question in full: its odds, chart, outcomes and news | Read a market's page |
#Where the information comes from
The odds are the prices traders pay on four venues: Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com. The page reads them from the venues every few minutes and shows each as the market's chance. They may be delayed, and the page says how long ago it last read them. Money traded comes from the same venues. The news comes from the 4Search news index. Prices of stocks, rates and coins come from 4Search Finance. The venues Predictions brings together says more about each.
#Common questions
Is Predictions betting?
No. Predictions only shows the odds and the news. You cannot place a trade on 4Search. Each market has a chip with the venue's name that opens the same market on the venue's own site in a new tab, where the venue's own terms and rules apply.
Do I need an account to use Predictions?
No. You can read every page without signing in. If you follow markets, your list is kept in your browser, not in an account. See Follow markets.
Are the odds a forecast from 4Search?
No. They are the venues' prices, and 4Search does not adjust them. Where more than one venue asks the same question, each one's number is shown, never an average. See The venues Predictions brings together.
Why does a page say "Prices read 9 min ago"?
The page reads prices from the venues every few minutes rather than live, so a number can be a few minutes behind. The note beside the odds switch tells you how long ago the last reading was.
Where is Predictions on my site?
It is a tab in the row at the top of the page, between Politics and Weather. If your site has no Predictions tab, it does not have the service; The 4 Network explains which sites have which services.